| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 31 2025 | L | Miami | 24-27 | 2040.1 | -45.3 | 1994.8 | 78.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Texas A&M | 40-41 | 1988.3 | -4.0 | 1984.3 | 61.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Purdue | 56-30 | 1984.3 | +20.2 | 2004.5 | 89.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Arkansas | 56-13 | 2004.5 | +103.8 | 2108.3 | 66.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Boise State | 28-7 | 2108.3 | +1.9 | 2110.2 | 89.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | NC State | 36-7 | 2110.2 | +19.7 | 2129.9 | 90.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | USC | 34-24 | 2129.9 | -3.4 | 2126.5 | 67.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Boston College | 25-10 | 2126.0 | -31.1 | 2094.9 | 97.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Navy | 49-10 | 2094.9 | +21.6 | 2116.5 | 94.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Pittsburgh | 37-15 | 2116.5 | +14.0 | 2130.5 | 83.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Syracuse | 70-7 | 2130.5 | +52.2 | 2182.7 | 96.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Stanford | 49-20 | 2182.7 | -5.4 | 2177.3 | 97.3% |